A recent forecast by Forrester Research predicts that advertising agencies will witness a replacement of 7.5% of their jobs with automation by 2030. This transformation is primarily attributed to the increasing prominence of generative artificial intelligence (AI) in the industry. According to the report, approximately one-third of agency jobs will be at risk of being replaced within the next decade.

Threats to Specific Job Roles

Generative AI poses a significant threat to clerical, secretarial, and administrative roles within advertising agencies, which are expected to account for 28% of job losses. Additionally, sales and similar positions are projected to contribute to 22% of the anticipated losses, while market research and related fields represent 18% of the overall impact.

Higher-Paid Positions: Increased Productivity, Not Automation

Interestingly, jobs that heavily rely on generative AI, such as editors, writers, and programmers, exhibit a negative correlation with automation potential. Forrester's findings suggest that these higher-paid and better-educated roles may experience increased productivity instead of being fully automated. Consequently, this could lead to the emergence of smaller yet more capable agencies in the future.

Generative AI's Impact on the Advertising Industry

Generative AI has become a focal point within the advertising industry in 2023, fueling both fear and excitement while instigating a competitive race to gain an early advantage in this domain.

Forrester's forecast, released during the Cannes Lions International Festival of Creativity, aims to dispel pessimism surrounding AI's encroachment on creative work in agencies. However, the research highlights that numerous agency jobs are still under threat, with an estimated 33,000 positions (7.5%) expected to be lost to automation by the 2030s.

Adoption of Generative AI in Marketing

Tools such as OpenAI's ChatGPT and DALL-E have rapidly introduced generative AI to the advertising landscape. These technologies enable the quick production of lifelike copy and visuals based on user prompts.

As per Forrester data, approximately 56% of business-to-consumer marketers have already embraced generative AI, with an additional 40% currently exploring its potential applications. Notably, Coca-Cola recently ran a campaign allowing consumers and artists to leverage OpenAI's tools to create new ads using the brand's library of assets.

Advertising agencies, including WPP and chipmaker Nvidia, are also actively integrating generative AI into their operations, emphasizing the potential for large-scale creative asset production.

Job Security for Creative Professionals

While speculations abound regarding the threat automation poses to creative roles, Forrester's findings suggest that creative jobs, including writers and editors, might be among the least vulnerable.

Although generative AI significantly influences these fields, it has the potential to enhance productivity, resulting in a mitigation of explicit job losses. Forrester predicts an increase in the share of agency jobs related to creative positions, as well as growth in professions such as data science, management, software development, public relations, and market research.

Furthermore, at a global level, Forrester anticipates that digital marketing and strategy specialists will experience a headcount expansion of over 20% by 2028.

The Role of Originality and Automation Potential

According to the report, "Forrester finds that originality is the most significant factor that lowers a job's automation potential. Put another way, the more creative the role, the less likely that it can be replaced by automation." This statement highlights the value placed on creative thinking and innovative problem-solving, which are essential attributes in positions resistant to automation.

Evolution of Job Roles and Agency Work

Conversely, clerical, sales, finance, administrative, and labor-intensive roles will gradually occupy a smaller share of agency work in the coming years. Forrester suggests that agency headcount growth from now until 2030 is unlikely to surpass pre-pandemic levels.

The Future of Generative AI and Agency Jobs

Forrester expects the impact of generative AI on agency jobs to remain "modest" over the next two years. This is due to ongoing discussions surrounding ethical and legal issues associated with the technology, including intellectual property rights and biases.

However, marketers should consider integrating AI into their practices and expanding their expertise to avoid falling perilously behind in this evolving landscape.